JONATHAN, BUHARI, AND THE 2015 ARITHMETICS.
I have been listening to comments and reading analyses on the 2015 presidential election with rapt attention. There is nothing unanimous in the predictions and projections, but I am sensing a trend in the analyses: that if the All Progressives Congress (APC) fields Maj. General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) against President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it will be a piece of cake for the former head of state. A Buhari supporter, in a recent newspaper interview, said Buhari’s votes in the North plus Bola Tinubu’s votes in the south-west equal automatic victory for APC. Slow down a bit, guys. I have no intention of raining on anyone’s parade or pouring cold water on exciting calculations, but analyses do not have to be this simplistic. If the history and politics of elections in Nigeria are to be of any use in these postulations, the safest bet will be to say there are still many rivers to cross. My intention today is to draw attention to sev