JONATHAN, BUHARI, AND THE 2015 ARITHMETICS.

I have been listening to comments and reading
analyses on the 2015 presidential election with
rapt attention. There is nothing unanimous in the
predictions and projections, but I am sensing a
trend in the analyses: that if the All Progressives
Congress (APC) fields Maj. General Muhammadu
Buhari (rtd) against President Goodluck Jonathan
of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it
will be a piece of cake for the former head of
state. A Buhari supporter, in a recent newspaper
interview, said Buhari’s votes in the North plus
Bola Tinubu’s votes in the south-west equal
automatic victory for APC.
Slow down a bit, guys. I have no intention of
raining on anyone’s parade or pouring cold water
on exciting calculations, but analyses do not
have to be this simplistic. If the history and
politics of elections in Nigeria are to be of any
use in these postulations, the safest bet will be
to say there are still many rivers to cross. My
intention today is to draw attention to several
facts and factors that will be at play during the
elections. Many things are still taking shape;
opportunities and threats still exist for the PDP
and the APC. It is too early in the day to arrive
at definite conclusions.
Let us look into some of the assumptions one by
one. The first is that Buhari will clear the votes in
the core North and Tinubu will deliver the South-
west votes in one basket. That Buhari will win in
the core North has never been in dispute, he has
done so consistently since 2003. It is unthinkable
that he will not win there. However, I’m not sure
Tinubu can clear the South-west the same way
Buhari could do in the core North. It appears
many commentators have not been monitoring
recent developments in the South-west. To start
with, two of the six states – Ekiti and Ondo – are
now in the hands of PDP. That is important to
note.
Meanwhile, the APC is getting weaker in Oyo
state. The three APC senators have left the party;
the death of Alhaji Alao Arisekola has dealt some
body blow on Governor Abiola Ajimobi; former
Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala (PDP) is on a
rebound; former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, who
controls large portions of Ibadan, is complicating
things for APC. In Ogun, Governor Ibikunle
Amosun is under fire from within and without.
Chief Olusegun Osoba, in whose camp the Ogun
APC senators and house members are, is playing
hard ball with Amosun. The PDP, meanwhile, is
bringing back its break-up groups and rebuilding
in the state.
In simple words, Oyo and Ogun have become very
shaky and it is a bit tenuous to assume the
South-west will vote en bloc for APC in 2015. I
may well be wrong, but I am seeing a split of the
zone’s 13.5 million votes. The South-west, in my
opinion, is neither here nor there yet. No
assumptions should be made and no conclusions
should be reached yet, certainly not in October
2014. Of course, the APC is not sleeping and is
also hoping to gain from the fall-outs from PDP’s
possible slips in the coming weeks. But South-
west does not look like one-way traffic as at
today.
Meanwhile, there is also this assumption that
Buhari or APC does not need the South-east and
South-south (SESS). That is ridiculous. First, it
is not good for Buhari’s CV that he has never
won in any Southern state since he launched his
presidential bid in 2003. Not one state. And it is
also not good political strategy to downplay SE/
SS. There are 11 states in these two geo-political
zones. The APC calculation may be that the
South-south would rather have a “son of the
soil” as president. The South-east, it seems, is
fully joined in matrimony to South-south under
Jonathan’s presidency. But does that mean
giving up without a fight?
Let us now reverse the case. Jonathan, despite
knowing that the core North will be a difficult
hunting ground for him, is putting up a decent
fight. He is working to secure as many votes as
possible in Buhari’s territory. The president has
gathered many strong politicians to his side. Now
let us do some basic calculations. SESS has 17
million votes combined. Buhari’s home zone,
North-west, has 18.7 million registered voters. If
Jonathan bites off as much as 30-40% of the
votes in the North-west (which he did in 2011)
while Buhari does poorly in SESS (like before),
Jonathan would clearly gain more than Buhari in
the candidates’ home zones.
Jonathan’s chances, in the meantime, are also
bright among the Northern minorities. It could be
minority solidarity, I can’t say. The North-central
has 11 million names on the voter register.
Jonathan’s reconciliation with former military,
Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and the governor of
Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, could help him
in Niger state. Kogi, Plateau, Nasarawa and
Benue would ordinarily back Jonathan. But Kwara,
which supported him in 2011, is now uncertain,
with the godfather, Bukola Saraki, relocating to
APC. Buhari will fancy his chances in Kwara, that
is if Saraki can ward off his PDP foes, who look
very formidable. In truth, Kwara now looks more
like a tight corner for both parties.
The North-east, boasting of 11 million registered
voters, could be a mixed bag. Gombe, Bauchi,
Yobe and Borno have always gone to Buhari,
while Taraba and Adamawa seem to have a thing
for Jonathan. But something significant has
changed in Borno: Ali Modu Sheriff is now in PDP.
Since 1999, Borno has always faced any direction
Sheriff pointed to, and his defection must be
considered a loss to APC. I was not surprised at
APC’s reaction when Sheriff left: Borno’s 2.5
million votes are the nation’s fifth largest after
Lagos (5.4m), Kano (4.7m), Kaduna (3.7m) and
Katsina (2.9m). Being Buhari’s familiar hunting
ground, however, Borno could still be game for
him.
Before I shut down my computer, I would like to
maintain that unlike many observers and
analysts, I foresee a very competitive election.
And, I think, four months to the polls, we should
avoid jumping into certain conclusions. One of
the major failings of the opposition is that they
underrated Jonathan’s ability to respond to the
momentum they gained last year. Before they
could settle down to savour the heavyweight
defections from PDP to APC, the Jonathan camp
had launched a counter offensive, in addition to
benefitting from crises arising from the
consolidation process of APC.
Therefore, dear readers, with what I have seen in
Nigeria in the last few months, and what I
understand about the dynamics of our electoral
politics, I would conclude that the day is still
young. For the two leading parties, there are still
many hurdles to clear. Let the game begin!
And Four Other Things…
EBOLA-FREE INDEED
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has
certified Nigeria Ebola-free and this is fantastic
news. But so were we before Patrick Sawyer
sneaked in from Liberia with the agent of death.
It takes just one case to get us back in it, so
vigilance is key. A two-year-old Guinean girl has
just infected Mali, having been taken by road
transport abroad after the death of her mother
from Ebola. I think we’re doing well checking body
temperatures at the airports, but for as long as
we maintain road links with the rest of West
Africa, we remain at high risk. Caution.
CEASEFIRE BY FORCE
With the state of my mind now, I don’t want to
hear anything but ceasefire in the North-east and
the release of the Chibok girls. Claims that the
Nigerian government is holding talks with genuine
representatives of Boko Haram had better be true.
The continuous attacks on Borno villages and the
fresh abduction of 60 women and girls are so
depressing that any form of positive news is
welcome at this time. I eagerly await the sect’s
“promise” to release the girls again this week. It
just has to be true. Hope deferred maketh the
heart sick. Anxiety.
BBOG AND APC
A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress
(APC), Chief Audu Ogbeh, recently spoke of his
party’s political links with the Bring Back Our
Girls movement. “We commend the Bring Back
Our Girls movement led by members of our party
for their commitment,” he said. To supporters of
President Goodluck Jonathan, this was the final
confirmation of their allegation all the while that
BBOG was an APC political gathering. Ogbeh
clearly committed a Freudian slip, but we should
not allow that to becloud the fact that BBOG is a
worthy cause. I think we should just keep politics
out of this traumatic experience. Decency.
GOWON AT 80
I am always happy when someone is making the
70th birthday and beyond. That is a sign of long
life in this age of all kinds of illnesses and
diseases killing people. I therefore celebrate with
former head of state, General Yakubu Gowon, on
his 80th birthday. I was expecting a birthday
present to Nigerians from Gowon – his memoirs
on the Nigerian civil war – but we may have to
wait in vain. Dim Emeka Ojukwu died with his
memoirs unwritten, denying us a first-hand
account of his experience. Gowon is following the
same path. Unfair.