ANALYSIS: As Atiku joins presidential race for the 4th time in 22 years, can he brace the odd this time?

On Wednesday, former Vice President
Atiku Abubakar will be on the march again as
he begins the process of taking another
possible shot at the Nigerian presidential seat.
Mr. Abubakar will, in a few hours, formally
declare his intention to contest the 2015
presidential election on the platform of the All
Progressives Congress, APC, in Abuja.
PREMIUM TIMES learnt that Mr. Abubakar’s
decision to declare his presidential bid was
based on months of consultations with his
political associates and supporters, the last of
which was a meeting held in Yola, the capital of
Adamawa State, his home state on September
1.
At the meeting, the associates of the former
vice president critically analysed his chances in
the impending contest, not just in the APC, but
also in the main presidential election fixed for
February.
Although, Mr. Abubakar, who is Turaki of
Adamawa, and had been linked with the
registration of the Peoples Democratic
Movement, PDM, was away in Imo State where
he chaired the lecture of the Progressives
Governors Forum while his associates were
meeting in Yola, the meeting resolved that the
declaration should hold September 24 ahead of
October when the APC will commence the
process to pick its presidential candidate for
next year’s election.
“The former Vice President, His Excellency Vice
President Atiku Abubakar (GCON), the Turaki
Adamawa will contest for the ticket of the All
Progressives Congress (APC), in the 2015
presidential elections. The former Vice President
will be making the declaration on Wednesday
September 24, 2014,” a statement by his media
aide, Garba Shehu, announced five days after
the meeting.
The statement said Mr. Abubakar “is of the
view that 2015 is special and a potential turning
point in Nigeria’s history, that we need to seize
the moment, to give every Nigerian a chance to
help redefine Nigeria as a place for them and
their children to prosper and feel safe. He says
a change is needed now, and he is ready to
lead that change.”
It added that the campaign would be directed
by a former Education and Aviation Minister,
Babalola Borishade, a long standing political
associate of Mr. Abubakar.
It stated that Mr. Borishade, a professor from
Ekiti State, is a political strategist who worked
for the victory of the late Shehu Yar’Adua,
Moshood Abiola and former President Olusegun
Obasanjo.
The fresh attempt at having a shot at the
presidency is Mr. Abubakar’s fourth. He had in
1992 sought to occupy the presidential seat
during the botched Third Republic under the
platform of the Social Democratic Party, SDP,
one of the two parties decreed into existence by
the military junta headed by Ibrahim Babangida.
He was however to withdraw for Moshood
Abiola, who eventually emerged the party’s
candidate and was coasting home to victory in
the June 13, 1993 presidential poll when the
military administration of Ibrahim Babangida
annulled the election.
Mr. Abubakar tried his luck again in 2007 on the
platform of the defunct Action Congress, AC, on
the eve of the exit of the Obasanjo
administration in which he served as vice
president.
A statement by Mr. Shehu on April 7, 2006
announcing the intention of Mr. Abubakar to run
in the 2007 presidential election, said, “The Vice
President has formed the decision to run for the
2007 presidency on the basis of united,
prosperous and peaceful Nigeria. The Vice
President believes he is the most experienced
having been VP for seven years now going to
eight years.”
The statement said Mr. Abubakar would not run
Nigeria as CEO because he did not believe good
leadership was about a single individual, but the
ability of a leader to assemble some of the best
hands to help him realize his objectives.”
Apart from the Niger Delta issue where he
believed a lot needed to be done and very
quickly to address it, the former vice president,
who was stoutly opposed to the alleged Third
term bid by his boss, Mr. Obasanjo, said he
would also tackle corruption and eradicate
poverty.
He formally announced his plan to contest on
November 25, 2006 and was chosen as AC
flag-bearer on December 20, 2006.
In that election held on April 21, the former vice
president lost woefully. Going by the result of
that election released by the Independent
National Electoral Commission, INEC, only
2,837,848 Nigerians voted for him thus placing
third behind Umaru Yar’Adua of the Peoples
Democratic Party, PDP, and Muhammadu
Buhari of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party,
ANPP.
In 2011, Mr. Abubakar made another move to
contest the presidency. First, he returned to the
PDP and was granted waiver in September
2010. The following month he announced his
plan to again seek the highest political office in
the land.
Thereafter, precisely on November 22 that year,
some northern elders, led by Adamu Ciroma,
picked him as the northern consensus
presidential candidate ahead of the former
military president, Ibrahim Babangida, former
Kwara State Governor, Bukola Saraki, former
National Security Adviser, Aliyu Gusau.
The former vice president subsequently ran in
the party’s primaries in January 2011, but was
roundly defeated by President Goodluck
Jonathan who polled 3,542 votes to Mr.
Abubakar’s 805 and Sarah Jubril’s one vote.
When he dumped the PDP for the APC in
February this year, barely three months after he
played a host to the party’s leaders who came
to his Abuja home to woo him, those familiar
with his politics easily knew Mr. Abubakar was
hatching a fresh political plan. He had been
virtually sidelined in the PDP and he knew the
ruling party would most likely not give him an
opportunity to even aspire to run.
He had complained loudly, and truly so, that the
PDP was not giving him his due regard as a
former number two man in the country. He was
not even being invited to meetings of the
relevant organs of the party.
Although Mr. Abubakar had claimed that he
was merely coming to nurture the party and
ensure good governance returns to Nigeria in
2015, it was not difficult to believe that he
would aspire to be president on the opposition
party’s platform.
In a recent interview with PREMIUM TIMES, Mr.
Abubakar was asked why he insisted in
occupying the nation’s presidential seat. He
explained that he merely wanted to give back to
Nigeria which had given him so much.
Hear him, “Must Atiku be President? No. It is
not a birth right. The difference I had wished to
make when I ran was to give back to a country
that has done so much for me. I owe to Nigeria.
Nigeria. Nigeria does not owe to me.”
He told AFP he would do better than Mr.
Jonathan because of his wealth of experience.
“I told Nigerians that Jonathan did not have the
capacity; he didn’t have the experience. He
didn’t have anything and yet they gave him the
chance, the opportunity.
“And they can now see the chance and the
opportunity they gave him. Of course, I am
experienced than he is. I believe my capacity
cannot be compared with his, in all respect.”
Perhaps! Mr. Abubakar forayed into politics in
the 80s and has since built extensive political
structure across the country. He teamed up with
the late Shehu Yar’Adua and belonged to his
political family – Peoples Democratic Movement
and Peoples Front. Although he won the SDP
governorship primary for Adamawa, Mr.
Abubakar was disqualified from contesting by
the then military junta.
In 1998, he sought to occupy the governorship
seat of Adamawa State on the platform of the
PDP and won. However, before the swearing in,
Mr. Obasanjo picked him ahead of other
contenders as his running mate and they won
the February 27, 1999 presidential election.
Mr. Abubakar occupied the position for the next
eight years. But before the end of his tenure, the
former vice president fell out with his boss, Mr.
Obasanjo who on his part did everything not
only to sack him, but also to frustrate his
presidential ambition.
In the statement announcing his plan to contest
the presidency, the former vice president said
“This is not about me. It is about our young
people. It is about Nigerians. It is their future,
not the past. It is about reforming government,
securing the people and reconciling the nation.”
But how far will Mr. Abubakar go?
Granted that Mr. Abubakar has the financial
power and political structure to prosecute the
presidential contest, it is almost certain that
the road will be rough for him. He will have to
contend with other and equally powerful
aspirants to clinch the ticket of the APC.
Although they are yet to make their bid for the
presidential ticket known, there are media
speculations indications that a former Head of
State and chieftain of the party, Muhammadu
Buhari, governors of Kano, Edo and Imo States,
Rabi’u Kwankwaso, Adams Oshiomhole and
Rochas Okorocha might join the race.
There are also indications that although he has
not announced his exit from the PDP, the
Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu
Tambuwal, might also seek the presidential
mandate on the platform of the Nigeria’s main
opposition party. It they do, the former vice
president will have his hands full dislodging this
equally formidable aspirants to clinch the ticket.
In the main, some of the party faithful are
already drumming up support for Mr. Buhari,
himself a serial presidential aspirant like Mr.
Abubakar.
A forthnight ago, a group, Buhari Vanguard,
organised a rally in Lagos demanding the entry
of the former military leader into the
presidential race.
“We’ve seen it since 1999. After 1999, when
General Buhari saw what was happening in
Nigeria, he entered politics. In 1999, you can
remember General Buhari never said a thing
about politics, but because those that came to
do it did not do it he decided to enter politics,”
the group’s chairman, Jasper Azuatalam, said.
“We know he is only one that can end
corruption in Nigeria, the only one can promise
and keep it. He has no oil well. This is the right
time. Now that APC has come, it is a party with
structure. And with APC, General Buhari will
coast home to victory.”
Like Mr. Buhari, some groups have also
emerged to back Mr. Abubakar’s ambition. Only
last weekend the Atiku Support Group and a
coalition of NGOs debuted in some northern
states to pledge support for the former vice
president.
Closely related to this is that should the APC
presidential ticket go to the North, which will
most likely be the case, votes from the region
during the primaries will be shared by
Messrs.Abubakar, Buhari and Kwankwaso. As
things presently stand, the former military
leader appears to have more cult-like
followership than the others.
One other thing Mr. Abubakar will contend with
in his bid to pick the ticket is winning the
support of another leader of the party, Bola
Tinubu. It is believed that one of the reasons he
left the AC for the PDP in 2010 was because of
his not-too-smooth relationship with the former
Lagos State governor. Party sources say even
now, Mr. Tinubu, who is immensely influential
in the APC, is more comfortable with a Buhari
presidency.
But Mr. Shehu, the former president’s media
aide is certain of the outcome of his principal’s
current bid for presidential power despite the
odds.
“If we are not sure of getting it we won’t come
out,” he told PREMIUM TIMES on Monday.